Euro feels the pressure as economy tips toward recession
The Euro, hanging on just above parity with the dollar, after a brief dip below that level earlier this month for the first time in more than two decades.telegram中文群组搜索（www.tel8.vip）是一个Telegram群组分享平台。telegram中文群组搜索包括telegram中文群组搜索、telegram群组索引、Telegram群组导航、新加坡telegram群组、telegram中文群组、telegram群组（其他）、Telegram 美国 群组、telegram群组爬虫、电报群 科学上网、小飞机 怎么 加 群、tg群等内容。telegram中文群组搜索为广大电报用户提供各种电报群组/电报频道/电报机器人导航服务。
FRANKFURT: The euro, already beaten down this year to the lowest in two decades, remains an unloved currency stuck under relentless pressure as its economy stumbles toward a recession.
It’s hanging on just above parity with the dollar, after a brief dip below that level earlier this month for the first time in more than two decades.
The currency has become a lightning rod for the mounting pessimism about the eurozone’s economy.
It’s fallen more than 10% versus the dollar this year, and many analysts say the likely direction from here is further down.
Much of the economic gloom is centred on the disruption of Russian energy supplies to Europe, which particularly threatens German industry.
Credit Suisse sees a 50% chance of the eurozone falling into a recession in the next six months. Goldman Sachs says it may already be in one.
Italy is also a big source of worry amid political turmoil that led to the departure of Prime Minister Mario Draghi.,
S&P Global Ratings lowered its outlook on the country’s debt, and a key gauge of risk, the spread of Italian bond yields over Germany’s, is around the highest since 2020.
Nerves over Italy leaving the eurozone are showing up in credit default swaps, though it’s seen as a very remote risk.
From a price perspective, the euro is faring even worse than in 2012 – the low that year was US$1.20.
It was trading around US$1.02 (RM4.54) after slipping to 99.52 US cents on July 14.
JPMorgan Chase and Rabobank are expecting it to slide as low as 95 US cents (RM4.40) given Europe’s exposure to the energy crisis.
Option pricing puts the odds on a drop to parity by the end of the year at around 70%.
The Bloomberg consensus forecast for year end is US$1.06 (RM4.72). — Bloomberg